The carbon-carbon composite is made of carbon fiber and its fabric as the reinforcing material and carbon as the matrix through processing and carbonization. Because of its unique properties, C/C composites have been widely used in aerospace, automotive industry, medicine, thermal field and other fields. China’s carbon-based material industry is also moving towards this trend. The development status of China’s carbon-based material industry has great advantages. The market demand is urgent and the capacity is increasing. Because of its excellent performance, carbon/carbon composites have been widely used in the fields of aerospace, photovoltaic and semiconductor, and become a major application vent in the carbon fiber industry.
Carbon carbon composites are widely used
Carbon ceramic composite is a new incremental market of carbon carbon composite materials – carbon ceramic brake discs can effectively shorten the braking distance, reduce the vehicle weight, and then increase the range. With product cost reduction, the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase.
The value of carbon fiber composites in the domestic aerospace market accounts for more than one third, and there is still room for growth in the future: the total demand for carbon fiber composites nationwide will reach 58000 tons in 2019, and the demand in the aerospace sector will reach 2154 tons, accounting for about 3.70% of the total demand; In 2019, the sales revenue of carbon fiber composite materials in the aerospace industry was 15.077 billion yuan, accounting for about 35.26% of the total sales. Compared with the structure of the carbon fiber composite market in developed countries, the market size of the domestic aerospace industry still has a large room for growth in the future. With the batch installation of new military aircraft, the domestic aerospace carbon fiber composite market is expected to develop rapidly.
As one of the core consumables in the production of photovoltaic single crystal furnace, photovoltaic and carbon thermal field enjoy the stock replacement of photovoltaic market and the dividend of market increment, and the industry will usher in a period of rapid development. Carbon-carbon materials are widely used in the field of industrial high temperature thermal field due to their excellent mechanical properties, high-temperature resistance, easy forming and other characteristics, gradually replacing the traditional isostatic graphite, ushering in an explosion of demand.
In 2021, the total demand of global photovoltaic carbon thermal field will be about 3800 tons. If the global photovoltaic installed capacity is estimated to be 500GW in 2025, the demand of global carbon thermal field will reach 14100 tons, with a CAGR of up to 30%.
In many application fields of carbon-carbon composite materials, the application market of photovoltaic field will be broader. Facing the energy development goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, accelerating the development of zero-carbon energy such as photovoltaic and replacing fossil energy such as coal power is the only way to carbon neutrality, and photovoltaic will usher in an accelerated development stage during the “14th Five-Year Plan”. With the full implementation of affordable Internet access, the photovoltaic industry has got rid of the dependence on policy subsidies, and the periodicity has weakened, and gradually shifted from policy-driven to economy-driven. With the gradual release of the demand of the photovoltaic industry, carbon-carbon composite products face broad market space.
Three major demands drive the rapid growth of carbon and carbon thermal field market
The silicon wafer link is actively expanded, and the new demand of carbon carbon material thermal field is expected to grow rapidly: the monocrystalline silicon link is actively expanded, among which Longji is expected to expand a total of 86GW of rod pulling capacity in Qujing, Lijiang and Ordos after 2022, and Zhonghuan is expected to expand a total of 50GW of monocrystalline silicon rod capacity in Ningxia. Companies such as Shangji CNC, Beijing Yuntong, Yijing Optoelectronics, Tongwei, Shuangliang Energy Conservation, and Gaojing Solar also have large production expansion plans. Downstream leading enterprises have actively expanded production, significantly increased the installed capacity of single crystal furnaces, and the new demand for carbon carbon composite thermal field is expected to grow rapidly.
Due to the consumable properties of hot field components, there is a wide space for replacement: high-temperature silicon steam corrosion and hot and cold alternation have a large loss on hot field components, so hot field components have the consumable properties and need to be replaced regularly. According to the prospectus of Jinbo Co., Ltd., the service life of the crucible is relatively short, about 6-8 months, and the service life of the insulation cylinder and the guide cylinder is relatively long, about 1.5 years and 2 years respectively. With the continuous increase of the storage capacity of the thermal field and the continuous improvement of the permeability of carbon carbon composites in the storage thermal field, the demand for the replacement and renewal of the original components will continue to release, and the demand space is broad.
The supply and demand of silicon materials are expected to be gradually relaxed, and the recovery of the silicon wafer operation rate is expected to promote the demand for replacement: according to our statistics of public information such as the announcements of relevant companies, the first tier enterprises in the industries of Tongwei, Xinte Energy, Asia Silicon, Oriental Hope and GCL Technology will gradually release their capacity in the second half of 2022. It is expected that the monthly output of domestic silicon materials is expected to reach 90000 tons by the end of 2022, and the global monthly output is expected to reach 100000 tons, Compared with the current output growth rate is expected to exceed 40%. Judging from the actual situation of the enterprises at the top of the current expansion progress, we expect that the next large-scale silicon production peak will come in 2023H2. It is estimated that the effective capacity of the first tier enterprises in 2023Q3-Q4 will correspond to the annual installed capacity demand of about 420GW and 460GW respectively. At the current expected demand level, the supply-demand ratio will exceed 120%. For example, taking into account the newly entered capacity of Qinghai Lihao and Jingnuo New Energy, At that time, the effective capacity of the industry is expected to exceed 500GW of annual installed capacity demand, with a supply-demand ratio of about 130%. With the gradual easing of silicon material supply, the operating rate of silicon wafer is expected to rise, and the demand for carbon and carbon thermal field replacement is expected to further increase.
Leading enterprise of carbon-carbon composites
Jinbo was founded in June 2005 and listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on May 18, 2020. The company is a leading supplier of advanced carbon-based composite materials and products in China, mainly used in crystalline silicon manufacturing thermal field system and brake system in the photovoltaic industry. In recent years, based on the underlying general technology of carbon matrix composites, the company has continuously expanded the application fields of carbon matrix composites. At present, it has completed the industrial layout in the five fields of photovoltaic, semiconductor, hydrogen energy, transportation and lithium battery. At present, Jinbo’s products are mainly photovoltaic thermal field system products, which are mainly used in the fields of single crystal drawing furnace thermal field system, polycrystalline ingot casting furnace thermal field system and vacuum heat treatment. At present, carbon and carbon composites are mainly used to replace graphite in photovoltaic thermal field products. By 2020, the permeability of carbon and carbon materials in the main photovoltaic thermal field products has exceeded 50%, except for heaters. As China gradually strengthens its independent research and development and investment in the semiconductor industry, the domestic substitution trend of high-end manufacturing industry is in the ascendant. In the future, carbon carbon composites are expected to realize the import substitution of graphite materials in the semiconductor industry.
At present, the main application fields of carbon-carbon composite materials are photovoltaic thermal field materials, military industry, brake discs, semiconductors, and four major areas. The military industry is relatively closed, and the brake disc market is relatively small. Therefore, it is mainly the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries that have huge development space. In the future, as the industrial upgrading and cost reduction process of the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries continue to advance, it is expected that advanced carbon-based composite materials such as C/C will replace graphite materials, It has become the main material for manufacturing thermal field system components of crystalline silicon in the photovoltaic industry and semiconductor industry. It has a huge market space, but there are still some problems. How to improve the R&D ability of enterprises in the field of carbon/carbon composites? These are all to be solved.
Article source:
1. Graphite Bond: in-depth report of carbon carbon composite industry
2. Global PV: Why is it the trend for carbon/carbon composites to replace graphite as thermal field materials?
3. Beihang Special Carbon: Analysis of the current situation and development prospects of China’s carbon carbon composite market in 2022
4. Carbon Fiber Research Institute: 100 billion blue ocean – diversified application of carbon matrix composites